Photo by Cathy & Gordon Illg

By Jerry Pabst

When putting together your list of gear to pack for a southern Illinois goose hunt, always start with warm clothing. You'll need long underwear, thick socks, insulated boots, a wool hat, Thinsulate-filled bibs and a good parka. I would even include a double-thick handkerchief, if there is such a thing. Don't let the word "southern" fool you - it is going to be cold.

The reason this packing list sounds more appropriate for the Alaskan Iditerod Dog Sled Race is because your goose hunt is going to be in January. And, if it isn't cold, there may not be very many geese to hunt. But if recent history repeats itself, early January's wintry blasts in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will have encouraged enough migratory birds to seek more moderate climes, and the big refuges in Williamson, Union and Alexander counties will have begun to fill up.

When the migration patterns of the Canada goose began to change about 20 years ago, most hunters thought it was a temporary aberration. A few years of milder-than-average winters were nothing to become excited about, since weather patterns would soon return to normal, and so would the migratory habits of the birds. Well, we now know that didn't happen, and it probably isn't going to happen. Moderate winters, no-till farm practices and the establishment of a huge resident population of giant Canada geese in the urban areas of northern Illinois have combined to alter the goose flights dramatically.

But while things are certainly different, they by no means diminish the opportunities afforded to goose hunters in the Land of Lincoln. As the old saying goes, "Instead of cursing the darkness, light a candle." Don't worry about the way things have changed, but simply adapt your hunting plans to take advantage to today's reality.

And, that reality is the big flights of geese don't go south until they have to, and they usually don't have to until mid-December at the earliest. In recent years, the major movement - the one that provides maximum action for goose hunters - has occurred during the final three weeks of the season, which ends Jan. 31.

It may be helpful to profile the goose migration as it occurred last season. The weather was typical of what we have been experiencing over the previous decade, with the exception of a few freak snowstorms in early December in the late 1990s.

On Nov. 10, 2003, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources conducted an aerial waterfowl survey of the South Zone. The biologists estimated there were 6,245 Canada geese present at that time. By Nov. 17, the number of geese had increased to just 7,070, an addition of a paltry 825 birds. The Dec. 1 survey showed 11,350 geese present, which compared favorably with the five-year average of 9,290. As of Nov. 25, 351 geese had been killed in the South Zone. By Dec. 8, the goose flock had dispersed, and only 9,175 birds were counted. That was 50 percent below the five-year average.

As winter came on, more geese arrived in the South Zone, and the Dec. 8 survey revealed 30,500 birds in the area, which still trailed the five-year average of 77,970. The slowly increasing population of migratory geese is reflected in the rising success rate of South Zone hunters. By Dec. 17, 1,054 birds had been bagged, and that number grew to 1,345 on Dec. 23. It wasn't a "shoot-'em-up," but it was encouraging.

By Jan. 5, the number of birds found in the major refuges of southern Illinois tallied 21,350, but again, that trailed the five-year average of 147,870 by a significant percentage. Still, the season's kill had edged upward to slightly over the 2,000 mark by year's end. A cold front moved through our state at this point, and by Jan. 8, 45,400 geese had flown south. The five-year average for that date was 141,950.

At this point, things began to heat up in the South Zone. By Jan. 16, the kill had risen to 5,418, or a daily average of 271 since the first of the year. The period of Jan. 16-18 saw the kill jump to 6,474, a daily average for that three-day period of 352 birds. Those figures compare favorably to the numbers put up in the Northeast Quota Zone, which had already filled its quota.

The Jan. 21 aerial survey showed 64,725 geese in the South Zone, a shortfall of about 100,000 from the five-year average. Populations in the major refuges were: Horseshoe Lake, 12,000; Union County, 9,000; Crab Orchard, 19,800; and Rend Lake, 3,500. By Jan. 26, 8,542 birds had been killed by South Zone hunters.

As the season ended on Jan. 31, geese continued to pour in to the South Zone, and a Feb. 3 aerial survey showed 140,370 birds present, surpassing the 125,561 five-year average for that date. The total season's kill in the Southern Quota Zone slightly surpassed 9,000 birds.

When considering aerial survey results it must be taken into consideration that their findings are greatly affected by weather, visibility and the fact that the geese may be out feeding when the plane passes over the refuges. Nevertheless, the weekly harvest numbers are factual, and they give us a clear picture of how the hunt has progressed. In the 2003-04 season, we can see the harvest rate improved dramatically beginning in very early January and continued at a good clip through the entire month.

It is clear from the statistics above that hunters heading to Illinois' Southern Quota Zone should choose to do so in January, whenever possible. The aerial surveys and the harvest statistics clearly reveal the relationship between winter storms in the north and improved hunting in the southern Illinois counties. The lesson to be learned is to stay flexible, and don't plan your hunt too far in advance. Do what any sensible goose would do, and that's sit tight until the storms hit, and then head for the southern refuges.

At this point it is appropriate to acknowledge that all the above statistics were generously provided by Ray Marshalla, head waterfowl biologist for the DNR. Marshalla's continuing cooperation with the press and numerous waterfowl organizations has contributed substantially to their ability to provide timely, useful information to duck and goose hunters throughout the state.

While the final results of nesting success, or lack of it, are not available at the time of this writing, we do have a May 25 report on nesting conditions on the goose breeding grounds of remote Canada. Sadly, it isn't a very encouraging bit of information, in that at that time snow and ice covered most of the nesting areas, and the birds hadn't even begun to lay eggs yet. While that doesn't guarantee a poor crop of young birds, it leads one to suspect there will be a significantly lower percentage of new honkers winging their way south this fall. That is bad news for hunters since the younger geese are the ones most likely to fall for our ruses and end up in the pot.

On the other hand, surveys in the suburbs around Chicago and a few other metropolitan areas reveal an increase of over 26 percent in the resident flock of giant Canada geese over last year. The resident population, in spite of sporadic efforts to control it, now has surged past the 100,000 mark, and is still growing. Since resident giant Canadas represent 54 percent of the birds killed each year in Illinois, the increase in the homegrown variety may make up for any shortfall in the wild flock. The migratory geese that move through Illinois are part of the Mississippi Valley Population, or MVP.